Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar expects new homes coming to Dubai in 2027 to help balance the market, but says Emaar will not offer discounts.
Dubai’s property market could become more balanced in 2027 as a new wave of housing supply reaches the market, Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar said, while ruling out discounts at the developer despite some rivals cutting prices sharply.
Speaking at AIM Congress in Dubai, Alabbar said he expects additional supply to ease some of the pressure that has pushed property prices higher in recent years.
Asked about his outlook for Dubai property prices, Alabbar pointed to 2027 as a period when increased supply could help restore equilibrium. He also said he expects a more limited 5% to 10% price adjustment given the extraordinary conditions created by the regional conflict.
His comments suggest that supply, rather than a sudden collapse in demand, could become one of the most important factors shaping Dubai real estate over the next year.
Emaar Rules Out Property Discounts
While some developers have reportedly started offering discounts of 20% to 50% on selected properties, Alabbar said Emaar would not follow that strategy.
“Right now, we have developers who are giving 50 per cent discounts, 20 per cent discounts. We give no discount,” he said.
He added that Emaar’s approach was based on maintaining product quality and financial strength rather than using price cuts to drive sales.
“Our policy is: good product, don’t give discount. Good cash flow, a lot of cash.”
The comments reflect Emaar’s confidence in its balance sheet and its ability to withstand periods of weaker transaction activity without substantially reducing prices. Emaar reported revenue of Dh23.9 billion in the first half of 2026, up 21% year on year, while property sales reached Dh26.6 billion. Net profit before tax rose 23% to Dh12.8 billion.
More Homes Could Bring the Market Into Balance
Alabbar has previously argued that additional supply in 2026 and 2027 could be beneficial for Dubai because it would prevent prices and rents from rising too quickly.
His latest comments take that view further, suggesting that a larger supply pipeline could create a “nice balance” in the market.
Dubai has experienced several years of strong demand following the pandemic, supported by population growth, international investment and the city’s appeal to high-net-worth individuals.
The arrival of more homes could therefore shift the market from one dominated by shortages and rising prices towards a more selective environment in which buyers have greater choice.
Alabbar has also argued that keeping housing costs at reasonable levels is important to Dubai’s long-term economic competitiveness.
Emaar Continues to Build Despite Uncertainty
Alabbar said Emaar’s development pipeline has given the company a large amount of real-time data on buyer behaviour during the recent period of geopolitical uncertainty.
The group has around 90,000 homes under production across roughly 18 countries, while close to 50,000 units are under construction in the UAE, according to his comments.
That scale means Emaar has continued production even as sales conditions became less predictable.
Emaar’s reported backlog also remains substantial. At the end of June 2026, the group had a revenue backlog of Dh164.9 billion, providing visibility into future revenue from property sales.
Cancellations Rose, Then Fell After Ceasefire
Alabbar said the conflict initially affected customer behaviour, but the impact was less persistent than might have been expected.
Before the war, Emaar was recording approximately 700 cancellations a month against around 2,500 sales. During the conflict, cancellations increased to about 1,100 per month.
After the ceasefire, however, the monthly figure fell to around 550, according to Alabbar.
He said customer payments had also proved more resilient than expected, which he interpreted as evidence that buyers continued to have confidence in Dubai, the UAE government and Emaar.
“Our customers really trust this land. They trust the government here. They really trust what we do,” he said.
Emaar Still Sees Opportunities in Dubai
Despite the uncertainty, Emaar is continuing to invest in the city.
The developer announced plans earlier this year for a Dh200 billion master-planned development in Dubai, with a gross floor area of more than 4.5 million square metres and capacity for nearly 150,000 residents. The project is planned as five integrated districts combining residential, commercial, hospitality, retail and civic uses.
Alabbar said Emaar’s decision to keep investing was based on Dubai’s policies, infrastructure and underlying market data rather than short-term market sentiment.
He argued that periods of uncertainty can also create opportunities for businesses with strong cash positions and low levels of debt.
For international investors, his message was similarly focused on financial discipline. He suggested that investors with sufficient liquidity and limited debt should continue looking at opportunities across the region rather than waiting indefinitely for uncertainty to disappear.
Affordability Remains a Concern
While Alabbar remains positive about Dubai’s property market, he also stressed the importance of affordability.
He said property and rental prices need to remain at levels that allow people to continue living and doing business in the city.
That matters beyond the residential market. Rising housing costs can affect inflation, employee costs, and the ability of companies to attract and retain talent.
A more balanced supply-demand environment in 2027 could therefore be positive not only for property buyers, but for Dubai’s broader economy.
AI Is Changing How Emaar Works
Alabbar also discussed another force that could reshape the property sector: artificial intelligence.
He described the pace of AI adoption as “scary” and said the technology was already dramatically reducing the time required for some property-development tasks.
According to Alabbar, Emaar teams can now complete master plans in around four hours, compared with nine months previously, while feasibility studies that once took months can reportedly be completed in minutes.
“We do master plans in four hours. We used to do master plans in nine months. We do feasibility in like four minutes. We used to do feasibility in three months,” he said.
He urged employees to learn and use AI across their work, comparing its adoption with the earlier transformation brought by email.
“Everybody should be involved, everybody should learn it, everybody should use it,” he said.
What Alabbar’s Outlook Means for Dubai Property
Alabbar’s outlook points to a Dubai property market entering a different phase from the rapid post-pandemic boom.
More housing supply is expected to come through in 2026 and 2027, potentially giving buyers greater choice and reducing some of the upward pressure on prices.
At the same time, strong developers with healthy cash flow may be less willing to use discounts to protect sales volumes.
For Emaar, the strategy appears to be to maintain pricing discipline, continue construction and remain invested in Dubai while allowing the market to find a more sustainable balance.
The company’s current performance supports that confidence. Emaar continues to report strong sales, a large development backlog and substantial projects in the pipeline.
The bigger question is what happens when the next wave of homes reaches buyers.
For Alabbar, 2027 could be the year when Dubai’s property market moves from extraordinary price growth towards something more balanced, with supply playing a larger role in determining where prices go next.
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Mohamed Alabbar, founder of Emaar Properties, said at the AIM Congress: “This is the time that you should look at opportunities if you don’t have a lot of debt, if you reserve cash.
Photo: Virendra Saklani/Gulf News
